Can't see the sun for the contrails…

contrailI set off for London at an early hour this morning. The air had a crisp autumn bite. As the train headed north of Basingstoke and the sun rose above the low lying mist in the fields a striking criss-cross matrix of contrails became increasingly visible across the skyline – some from planes that had long since left UK airspace or landed at the big London airports and a load more from planes still in view. At one point I counted 10 aircraft at varying altitudes adding their fresh white trails to the blue canvas.

Aside from being a reminder of just how busy the skies are above us, particularly in the South East of England, it was also an illustration of how issues around climate change are not as straightforward as sometimes thought. On my way home this evening I read a couple of articles concerning climate change and air travel, both of which were calling for a dramatic cut in the number of flights in and out of the UK to reduce carbon emissions. This reminded me of some research that was conducted following the 9/11 terrorist attacks when the entire US fleet was grounded for several days.

Observers at the time said how abnormally clear and bright the sky seemed over the US during those days and those monitoring atmospheric temperatures noticed a sudden and dramatic rise across the US not seen in research before. It became apparent that contrails and air particles associated with air travel and long suspected as being a large contributing factor in global dimming were doing more than imagined to keep the opposite effects of global warming at bay.

Wired's predictions for 2020 and beyond…

crystalballIn the recent UK launch issue of Wired, a panel of experts and ‘professional futurists’ (how the hell do you get to be one of those ;)) gave their predictions for developments up to 2050.  The predictions made for the years up to and including 2020 are listed below… 

  • 2010 – Citywide free WiFi – ( I like the word ‘free’)
  • 2013 – Rapid bioassays using biosensitive computer chips (I think this means less animal testing – good news for rabbits 😉 )
  • 2014  – Care robots – (not your iRobot style ones but pragmatic machines to make life easier for those with physical difficulties)
    • Life browsing – (personal data management)
  • 2015 – Intelligent advertising posters (Minority Report style)
  • 2017 – Window power – (energy efficient buildings adding power back to the grid)
    • Intelligent packaging
  • 2018 – Teledildonics – (oooh missus! –  remote control sexual stimulation)
    • Active contact lenses -(like the Terminator head-up display)
    • Meal replacement patches – (taking nicotine patches a stage further)
    • Non touch computer interfaces – (wave your arms around like in Minority Report)
    • Nanotech drugs
    • Everything online – (the intelligent grid arrives)
    • Office Video walls – (like Quantum of Solace)
  • 2019 – Folk-art revival – (cause anybody can do anything online)
    • Electro sex – (these people are obsessed!!! – but probably right, as sex has driven most mainstream consumer tech developments in recent decades)
  • 2020 – Death of Web 2.0 – (a real dig at amateur journalism and the blogging generation)
    • A machine passes the Turing test – (artificial intelligence arrives and we’re all doomed if the autonomous US battlefield robots haven’t wiped us out already ;))
    • Space currency floated – (what are they smoking???)
    • Universal cloud computing – (if they can all stop arguing and ever agree on standards)
    • Genetic prophecy at birth – (survival of the fittest and a new super-race is born)
    • Humans visit Mars – (and find they didn’t learn any more than all the robots they’d been sending there for 30 years already)

Beyond 2020 some notable inclusions are…

  • 2021 – First global warming conflict – floods in Bangladesh lead to mass emigration and drought in South East Asia will cause battles for water
  • 2024 – Microbial diesel provides most of our fuel – (oooh cheap fuel again – all energy problems solved)
  • 2032 – Cancer no longer a problem – (that’s a relief then)
  • 2035 – China goes global and dominates the world economy and its worldview starts to change culture – (I’ll stock up on woks then)
  • 2045 – Super intelligence – machines will build other machines – (and we’ll all be moving to The Matrix)
  • 2048 – Space elevator – (I thought they were already building this? ;))

Notable exceptions…

Bit surprising given that those two really do have the potential to change the world – but as long as we get ‘Electro Sex’ at least we’ll all die happy!!!

You can't predict the future…

 The writer Arthur C. Clarke said, “When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.”

As this list of failed technology predictions shows we get it wrong when imagining the future because the starting point for our predictions is invariably what we know and feel today. However, we also know that the future will be full of surprises as unexpected discoveries are latched onto and take things in completely unpredictable directions.

The launch of the UK version of Wired this week shows that presumably there is an interest and appetite in looking ahead and I think with all the doom and gloom around right now it’s important to be looking towards a better future.

cougar_aceI read the sample copy that came with the Times at the weekend and there are some interesting features in the first issue, including a timeline of potential developments over the next few decades. The article that will get me buying the first issue though (as I’m sure was the strategy of the Editor) is the true account of the Cougar Ace a massive carrier ship that was rescued in a complex salvage operation a few years back. Apparently Steven Spielberg has bought the rights to the story and just from reading the sample article I can see what a good film the story could make.