Wishing all my gadgets were like this…

I walked into a presentation to the Board the other day and couldn’t believe my eyes. Our Finance Director had exactly the same calculator as the one I use.

Errr wow???  So what’s the point of such a mundane observation?

Well, firstly that my calculator is my most reliable, faithful and long-standing gadget – dating back to my first job in 1987. It’s robust, fit for purpose and because of clearly very efficient solar technology just keeps running and running, even in surprisingly low artificial lighting conditions. For something that is over 20 years old it has a somewhat timeless design too – although doesn’t quite qualify for calculator museum status yet.

Seeing the FD with the exact same model, which I have since learnt is also well over 20 years old, my respect for my long-standing gadget has grown further. Unlike my device, which gets regular but not heavy use, the FD’s one has been hammered daily for a fair proportion of those 20 years. I would have expected some serious wear and tear after that – failed screen display, sticking buttons, cracked casing, power failures etc – but no – the only difference between his and mine is the ‘plus’ symbol has worn off – I guess if he doesn’t know what that button does by now then he shouldn’t be an FD 🙂

I like gadgets but I hate unnecessary waste. Seeing the mountains of tech waste grow and grow as we discard things like mobile phones on a distressingly regular basis is depressing – particularly when you see the toxic damage it’s doing not just to the environment but also the poor people who are forced to make a living salvaging valuable resources from the scrap.

Even on something as simple as my old calculator, there are at least 4 buttons I can’t remember ever pressing and a bunch of other functions I’ve never had reason to use and have long forgotten what they related to. I just want devices that do simple things well and don’t need replacing every couple of years.

I thought the iPhone looked promising but it’s hardly robust. Over the last few months I witnessed by brother-in-law crack the screen on his twice in the space of a week and my wife’s wifi antenna packed up beyond repair. I can’t see a current iPhone model lasting over 20 years unscathed and the constant recharging makes it far less convenient and instantly usable as my old calculator.

So, will there come a time before 2020 when I can buy a robust, solar powered mobile device that I can make simple phone calls on and access the web instantly to carry out all basic ‘office’ type tasks – but, above all, be able to undertake the same basic needs over 20 years later?

Ducking and diving down under…

Seeing a 3 metre shark heading straight for me with it’s mouth open, I heeded the divemaster’s advice from the briefing session and ducked down behind the reef.  The experience of that shark passing less than half a metre over the top of me is one I won’t forget. I was close enough to have plucked out one of the teeth it was about to shed from the front of its jaw – but remembering just how sharp one tooth felt when we handled it in the briefing session, I kept my hands well away.

Sounds dramatic? The stuff of dreams or nightmares? OK – let me come clean… Yes I was in the water with the shark and yes it came that close to me with it’s mouth open.   However, I was diving at the Aquarium of Western Australia (AQWA) and not the open sea on this occasion and an encounter like that was almost guaranteed when you’re in a tank full of large nurse sharks and smaller whaler sharks.

Despite their size and scary ‘open mouthed’ appearance, nurse sharks are relatively placid, particularly if they’ve spent a fair chunk of their lives being waited on hand and foot in a big bath.  However, if you were to pop up right in front of them when they’re not expecting it then they have been known to bite, so the emphasis of the briefing before entering the water is to make sure you have excellent buoyancy control and stay close to the bottom of the aquarium at all times.

Having not been under the water for a couple of years, I was grateful for the open water refresher I’d done on a wreck trail dive the week before – at least I knew if I my mask was flicked off by another diver’s fin or I had problems with buoyancy I would deal with it calmly and not inadvertently head into the path of an oncoming shark or stingray.

I must admit feeling a twinge of apprehension as I was about to enter the water and looked down to see a large grey outline with a fin breaking the surface. If you’re watching these creatures through the glass tunnels and windows below, firstly you won’t see this classic view of the shark’s fin and secondly, the effect of the glass reduces the apparent size of the object being viewed by 30%.

This size reduction caused much hilarity amongst the audience gathered in the observation tunnel below as, according to my wife and daughters later, we looked ‘like hobbits’ when we entered the water. Diving with an audience was certainly a new experience and quite disconcerting when you see them pointing at things around you that you can’t see as quickly – The narrow field of view from the mask, restriction of the regulator feed,  position of the air tank and resistance of the water makes rapid head and body turning harder. It was only on playing back some of the video my daughter was taking of me from the observation tunnel that I appreciated how close I was to some of the tank’s inhabitants, particularly the stingray who seems to have developed a bit of a game of darting underneath the divers at unexpected moments.

click for larger view

For any divers heading out to Western Australia for the first time then I recommend Bell Scuba for their excellent range of gear for hire. These guys also take some responsibility for looking after the Bell Park Wreck Trail dive site which is literally off the shore opposite their beach front premises.

It’s in a tank, only 5 metres down and the inhabitants are more like pets than wild creatures – but, it’s an amazing experience and well worth doing if you can.  Find the Shark Dive Experience details here and a Virtual Tour that gives a better idea than my fuzzy pics.

Can't see the sun for the contrails…

contrailI set off for London at an early hour this morning. The air had a crisp autumn bite. As the train headed north of Basingstoke and the sun rose above the low lying mist in the fields a striking criss-cross matrix of contrails became increasingly visible across the skyline – some from planes that had long since left UK airspace or landed at the big London airports and a load more from planes still in view. At one point I counted 10 aircraft at varying altitudes adding their fresh white trails to the blue canvas.

Aside from being a reminder of just how busy the skies are above us, particularly in the South East of England, it was also an illustration of how issues around climate change are not as straightforward as sometimes thought. On my way home this evening I read a couple of articles concerning climate change and air travel, both of which were calling for a dramatic cut in the number of flights in and out of the UK to reduce carbon emissions. This reminded me of some research that was conducted following the 9/11 terrorist attacks when the entire US fleet was grounded for several days.

Observers at the time said how abnormally clear and bright the sky seemed over the US during those days and those monitoring atmospheric temperatures noticed a sudden and dramatic rise across the US not seen in research before. It became apparent that contrails and air particles associated with air travel and long suspected as being a large contributing factor in global dimming were doing more than imagined to keep the opposite effects of global warming at bay.

100 Months to Save the World…

The 40th anniversary of the moon landings has brought some poignant and timely comment when it is said that the real triumph of the missions was not that we explored the moon but that we “discovered the Earth”.

More importantly, through the observations of the astronauts and the images we could finally see for ourselves, we discovered just how fragile and vulnerable our little planet looks hanging in the vastness of space and with an atmosphere that’s just 62 miles deep (a few hours bike ride) looking like impossibly thin protection from the mighty forces of physics and nature.

750px-Earth-moonThe missions helped spawn environmental movements and also the satellite technology that has enabled us to gain a greater understanding of just what a mess we’ve been making of our fragile planet.

I heard a UK comedian observe recently that he used to be an environmentalist until he traveled to the US.  He likened the experience to turning up at the aftermath of an earthquake with a dustpan and brush.

I felt similarly powerless after visiting Florida a couple of years back and being staggered not just at the extreme levels of energy consumption driven by the American lifestyle (big trucks, big houses, big fridges, big entertainment) but also what seemed like a complete absence of alternative energy sources such as barely seeing any solar panels in the ‘sunshine state’ of all places.

But the US is changing fast and doing more than just talk about the challenges now. However, with China leapfrogging the US as the planet’s largest carbon emitter last year and basically telling the Western world where to stick its emissions policies and treaties it’s hard to see how progress will be made to contain the growing threat to the planet.

I’ve heard some renowned climate change commentators saying they believe we only have 100 months to save the world. There is also a site http://www.onehundredmonths.org/ counting down these months and we’re already through the 90 month mark by its reckoning. This sounds pretty dramatic when you hear it like this but is based on a growing consensus that if our carbon emissions are not curbed substantially within the next 10 years then we will reach a tipping point and the very worse predictions for temperature rises during the next 50 -100 years will come to fruition.

I think it’s already becoming broadly accepted that we’ve done a lot of damage to our world during the last 100 years in particular and while it will no doubt continue to spin for many billions of years to come mankind is turning it into a place that will become increasingly hostile to our species. It seems increasingly unlikely that this planet will continue to keep the human race in the manner to which its become accustomed or the manner to which it aspires without some radical changes in how we do things.

In my last post, I wrote about the project I have been immersed in for the last 18 months and some lessons learnt so far. The more I think about this global web project, the challenges so far and of those ahead, the more I think of it as a microcosm of the broader challenges we face globally in combating climate change and the impact on our environment that we are seeing more clearly every day.

The timeframe I gave the web project was ‘100 Weeks to build the future’. A timeframe that recognised that change doesn’t happen overnight and that there are many steps you need to make in order to achieve bigger ambitions of moving beyond broadcasting information to engaging with web users or selling direct to consumers for example.

For me, the biggest challenge coming out of this project has not been physical distance – as I think that modern comms technology and the online/connected nature of the project has sufficiently compensated for that – but ‘psychic distance’.

The varying ‘thought worlds’ that we all inhabit and the ways in which we believe our challenges, cultures, beliefs and needs are indeed different from others. This ‘psychic distance’ results in misjudgments, misunderstandings, and relational friction and one of the biggest challenges is getting agreement to, and introducing, governance systems that harmoniously integrate participants with different languages, conventions and rule-systems.

Having come into this particular organisation somewhat detached from the history and politics my objective view was that the perceived differences in markets, culture and requirements was somewhat over-exagerated and that the cost, wastage and inefficiencies involved in duplicating efforts 10, 20, 30 times over far outweighed the perceived advantages of each country treading its own path. However, try telling that to a Country/Territory Manager who has profit and loss responsibilities, tough market conditions and some big targets to achieve. The bigger picture and longer term view becomes far less relevant from that perspective.

And therein lies one of the biggest challenges facing the human species today. If we are agreed that we need to change the way we do things for our longer term survival and future prosperity, how do we reduce that ‘pyschic distance’, connect and combine these many ‘thought worlds’ and take action sufficiently quickly to make a difference? Personally, I’m going to keep working on this one – not just because it is core to what I do – but also because my children’s future is at stake.

Wired's predictions for 2020 and beyond…

crystalballIn the recent UK launch issue of Wired, a panel of experts and ‘professional futurists’ (how the hell do you get to be one of those ;)) gave their predictions for developments up to 2050.  The predictions made for the years up to and including 2020 are listed below… 

  • 2010 – Citywide free WiFi – ( I like the word ‘free’)
  • 2013 – Rapid bioassays using biosensitive computer chips (I think this means less animal testing – good news for rabbits 😉 )
  • 2014  – Care robots – (not your iRobot style ones but pragmatic machines to make life easier for those with physical difficulties)
    • Life browsing – (personal data management)
  • 2015 – Intelligent advertising posters (Minority Report style)
  • 2017 – Window power – (energy efficient buildings adding power back to the grid)
    • Intelligent packaging
  • 2018 – Teledildonics – (oooh missus! –  remote control sexual stimulation)
    • Active contact lenses -(like the Terminator head-up display)
    • Meal replacement patches – (taking nicotine patches a stage further)
    • Non touch computer interfaces – (wave your arms around like in Minority Report)
    • Nanotech drugs
    • Everything online – (the intelligent grid arrives)
    • Office Video walls – (like Quantum of Solace)
  • 2019 – Folk-art revival – (cause anybody can do anything online)
    • Electro sex – (these people are obsessed!!! – but probably right, as sex has driven most mainstream consumer tech developments in recent decades)
  • 2020 – Death of Web 2.0 – (a real dig at amateur journalism and the blogging generation)
    • A machine passes the Turing test – (artificial intelligence arrives and we’re all doomed if the autonomous US battlefield robots haven’t wiped us out already ;))
    • Space currency floated – (what are they smoking???)
    • Universal cloud computing – (if they can all stop arguing and ever agree on standards)
    • Genetic prophecy at birth – (survival of the fittest and a new super-race is born)
    • Humans visit Mars – (and find they didn’t learn any more than all the robots they’d been sending there for 30 years already)

Beyond 2020 some notable inclusions are…

  • 2021 – First global warming conflict – floods in Bangladesh lead to mass emigration and drought in South East Asia will cause battles for water
  • 2024 – Microbial diesel provides most of our fuel – (oooh cheap fuel again – all energy problems solved)
  • 2032 – Cancer no longer a problem – (that’s a relief then)
  • 2035 – China goes global and dominates the world economy and its worldview starts to change culture – (I’ll stock up on woks then)
  • 2045 – Super intelligence – machines will build other machines – (and we’ll all be moving to The Matrix)
  • 2048 – Space elevator – (I thought they were already building this? ;))

Notable exceptions…

Bit surprising given that those two really do have the potential to change the world – but as long as we get ‘Electro Sex’ at least we’ll all die happy!!!