Category Archives: Alternative Energy

When East meets West – what will the World look like?

Some earlier posts on this blog express my fascination with China and its increasing impact on the world. The marketing department I’m running in my current role shares its office space with purchasing and my two immediate colleagues are Chinese. Much of my day is filled with the sound of conversations in Chinese as information about our latest product innovations is exchanged with our offices in Hong Kong and suppliers in Guangdong. This is my 3rd job in a row where Asia has represented a significant part of the organisation’s operations and it has heightened my interest in Asian countries and cultures.

With this in mind, I jumped at the chance (excuse the pun) to take the family to see a preview showing of The Karate Kid at the weekend. The original film was a classic during my youth so I did have some reservations about the remake. The story is a good one, which is always a useful starting point for a remake and the passing of 26 years since the first film makes for some interesting analysis of how the world has changed – the biggest of which is the film’s location – from California to China.

Well, back in the cold war days of 1984, you wouldn’t imagine a US film-maker getting such uninhibited access to the authentic sights and sounds of Beijing (probably still better known as Peking in the early 80s), detailed shots inside the Forbidden City, such awe-inspiring views of those pointy mountains in the southern Guangxi province, amazing tours of the Wudang Mountain monasteries and incredible panoramas of the Great Wall in the north. For me, it was this Chinese authenticity and insight that marks the film out as a worthwhile remake.

It was with some sadness therefore that later on Sunday, I read the review of ‘When a Billion Chinese Jump: How China Will Save Mankind – Or Destroy It’ an assessment by journalist Jonathan Watts of the environmental impact economic advance has had on China. The review makes grim reading, as do the preview pages accessible via Amazon.

However, although I’m sure I will find this book fascinating and depressing in equal measures, it struck me that the immediacy with which I could satisfy an impulsive urge, place an order for it via an iPhone from my bed and have it delivered to my door the next day sits at the heart of the issues it highlights.

This is a monster of our making. Mass consumerism in the West has led to what the book preview describes as a ‘pass the parcel’ approach to the detrimental environmental effects of manufacturing – the tatty remnants of which China is now holding. But our excesses are just the start. Understandably, the Chinese wish to enjoy the fruits of their hard labour. For the majority of them to meet the levels of lifestyle enjoyed today in the West means a level of consumerism beyond anything this world has yet seen. So, this does indeed raise the question ‘when East meets West – what will the World look like? It’s undoubtedly a question we all play a role in answering.

Wishing all my gadgets were like this…

I walked into a presentation to the Board the other day and couldn’t believe my eyes. Our Finance Director had exactly the same calculator as the one I use.

Errr wow???  So what’s the point of such a mundane observation?

Well, firstly that my calculator is my most reliable, faithful and long-standing gadget – dating back to my first job in 1987. It’s robust, fit for purpose and because of clearly very efficient solar technology just keeps running and running, even in surprisingly low artificial lighting conditions. For something that is over 20 years old it has a somewhat timeless design too – although doesn’t quite qualify for calculator museum status yet.

Seeing the FD with the exact same model, which I have since learnt is also well over 20 years old, my respect for my long-standing gadget has grown further. Unlike my device, which gets regular but not heavy use, the FD’s one has been hammered daily for a fair proportion of those 20 years. I would have expected some serious wear and tear after that – failed screen display, sticking buttons, cracked casing, power failures etc – but no – the only difference between his and mine is the ‘plus’ symbol has worn off – I guess if he doesn’t know what that button does by now then he shouldn’t be an FD 🙂

I like gadgets but I hate unnecessary waste. Seeing the mountains of tech waste grow and grow as we discard things like mobile phones on a distressingly regular basis is depressing – particularly when you see the toxic damage it’s doing not just to the environment but also the poor people who are forced to make a living salvaging valuable resources from the scrap.

Even on something as simple as my old calculator, there are at least 4 buttons I can’t remember ever pressing and a bunch of other functions I’ve never had reason to use and have long forgotten what they related to. I just want devices that do simple things well and don’t need replacing every couple of years.

I thought the iPhone looked promising but it’s hardly robust. Over the last few months I witnessed by brother-in-law crack the screen on his twice in the space of a week and my wife’s wifi antenna packed up beyond repair. I can’t see a current iPhone model lasting over 20 years unscathed and the constant recharging makes it far less convenient and instantly usable as my old calculator.

So, will there come a time before 2020 when I can buy a robust, solar powered mobile device that I can make simple phone calls on and access the web instantly to carry out all basic ‘office’ type tasks – but, above all, be able to undertake the same basic needs over 20 years later?

Wired's predictions for 2020 and beyond…

crystalballIn the recent UK launch issue of Wired, a panel of experts and ‘professional futurists’ (how the hell do you get to be one of those ;)) gave their predictions for developments up to 2050.  The predictions made for the years up to and including 2020 are listed below… 

  • 2010 – Citywide free WiFi – ( I like the word ‘free’)
  • 2013 – Rapid bioassays using biosensitive computer chips (I think this means less animal testing – good news for rabbits 😉 )
  • 2014  – Care robots – (not your iRobot style ones but pragmatic machines to make life easier for those with physical difficulties)
    • Life browsing – (personal data management)
  • 2015 – Intelligent advertising posters (Minority Report style)
  • 2017 – Window power – (energy efficient buildings adding power back to the grid)
    • Intelligent packaging
  • 2018 – Teledildonics – (oooh missus! –  remote control sexual stimulation)
    • Active contact lenses -(like the Terminator head-up display)
    • Meal replacement patches – (taking nicotine patches a stage further)
    • Non touch computer interfaces – (wave your arms around like in Minority Report)
    • Nanotech drugs
    • Everything online – (the intelligent grid arrives)
    • Office Video walls – (like Quantum of Solace)
  • 2019 – Folk-art revival – (cause anybody can do anything online)
    • Electro sex – (these people are obsessed!!! – but probably right, as sex has driven most mainstream consumer tech developments in recent decades)
  • 2020 – Death of Web 2.0 – (a real dig at amateur journalism and the blogging generation)
    • A machine passes the Turing test – (artificial intelligence arrives and we’re all doomed if the autonomous US battlefield robots haven’t wiped us out already ;))
    • Space currency floated – (what are they smoking???)
    • Universal cloud computing – (if they can all stop arguing and ever agree on standards)
    • Genetic prophecy at birth – (survival of the fittest and a new super-race is born)
    • Humans visit Mars – (and find they didn’t learn any more than all the robots they’d been sending there for 30 years already)

Beyond 2020 some notable inclusions are…

  • 2021 – First global warming conflict – floods in Bangladesh lead to mass emigration and drought in South East Asia will cause battles for water
  • 2024 – Microbial diesel provides most of our fuel – (oooh cheap fuel again – all energy problems solved)
  • 2032 – Cancer no longer a problem – (that’s a relief then)
  • 2035 – China goes global and dominates the world economy and its worldview starts to change culture – (I’ll stock up on woks then)
  • 2045 – Super intelligence – machines will build other machines – (and we’ll all be moving to The Matrix)
  • 2048 – Space elevator – (I thought they were already building this? ;))

Notable exceptions…

Bit surprising given that those two really do have the potential to change the world – but as long as we get ‘Electro Sex’ at least we’ll all die happy!!!

You can't predict the future…

 The writer Arthur C. Clarke said, “When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.”

As this list of failed technology predictions shows we get it wrong when imagining the future because the starting point for our predictions is invariably what we know and feel today. However, we also know that the future will be full of surprises as unexpected discoveries are latched onto and take things in completely unpredictable directions.

The launch of the UK version of Wired this week shows that presumably there is an interest and appetite in looking ahead and I think with all the doom and gloom around right now it’s important to be looking towards a better future.

cougar_aceI read the sample copy that came with the Times at the weekend and there are some interesting features in the first issue, including a timeline of potential developments over the next few decades. The article that will get me buying the first issue though (as I’m sure was the strategy of the Editor) is the true account of the Cougar Ace a massive carrier ship that was rescued in a complex salvage operation a few years back. Apparently Steven Spielberg has bought the rights to the story and just from reading the sample article I can see what a good film the story could make.

A star on Earth…

Two Bell Labs associates, Arthur L. Schawlow and Charles H. Townes are credited with the invention of the laser in the late 1950s, the feasibility of which was proposed by Einstein in 1919. The potential significance of that invention was emphasised in a BBC2 Horizon programme this week which examined the progress and future of nuclear fusion.

It was presented by Professor Brian Cox, a guy who wouldn’t look out of place in a Manchester alternative rock band, and a welcome new face to present complex scientific ideas.

nif-chamber1Amongst 4 significant fusion research projects is that of the National Ignition Facility in California which although 5 years behind schedule and way over budget is due for completion this year. Essentially it is the world’s largest laser, or rather 196 lasers all designed to fire on one spot. That spot is a fuel source which when ignited by the lasers will (it is believed) result in nuclear fusion and produce a mini star that will burn for a fraction of a second but emit energy 10-100 greater than that required to ignite it.
The other featured research projects were the Z Machine in New Mexico, the Kstar project in South Korea and JET project in Oxfordshire UK.

If nothing else, the programme brought home the scale of the challenge facing the world in addressing its exponential energy needs. A plain speaking, no nonsense US scientist explained the calculations behind the power we consume today and what would be required if every person on earth had some equality in the power they used to live their lives comfortably.

The maths showed clearly the efforts required with various energy sources to meet those needs. With wind power, for example, we would have to cover virtually our global landmass in turbines to meet such needs and we would have to start doing it today with no delay. Each second that passes takes us further from achieving the goal.

The upshot of this exercise was to illustrate that none of world’s current energy sources could provide anywhere near the future energy requirements of the world if we are to sustain our way of lives in the western world and enable those in the developing world to enjoy much better standards of living. Even nuclear fission would require us to be building many hundreds more reactors than are planned and again for us to be doing it right now not in 5, 10 or 20 years time.

The programme left its presenter and me in no doubt that fusion is the only conceivable answer right now to the world’s energy and global warming challenges and that with a concerted global effort and more support for the research done to date then it is achievable. It would certainly appear to be a case of ‘when’ not ‘if’.

The programme ended with the various fusion project leaders and observers giving their view on when fusion energy would flow into the world’s power grid. The most optimistic view was 2022 – almost in the timeframe of this blog but a more general consensus pushed it to 2030-35.