Monthly Archives: February 2009

Optimistic Pessimism…

In a subsequent interview with James Lovelock I have read recently, he describes himself as an ‘Optimistic Pessimist’ – this is based largely on his observations on how the human population react in times of crisis and his belief that we can actually be happier than when dealing with long periods of peace and prosperity.

I am also reminded of my socio/economic history studies and the predictions of Thomas Malthus about population growth out-stripping food supply, which did not come to fruition in the timescales he was proposing.

World population has soared to numbers Malthus probably could not have conceived of thanks to modern agriculture, with its complex machinery, immense transport infrastructure and fertilizers.

But wait…machinery, transport, fertilizers on the scale we use them today would not be possible without an abundant supply of cheap fossil fuels. And it was this, more than any other factor, that Malthus could not predict in his observations.

So are we heading for a double whammy here? Global temperature rises of at least 2oC during this century that render massive areas of land uninhabitable, combined with an increasing decline in fossil fuel availability that makes modern agriculture too expensive to sustain at its current levels?

Optimistic forecasts on that ‘peak oil’ date (the point at which reserves decline) put it at 2020. This is followed by charts that indicate oil availability falling back within 90 years to levels seen at the beginning of the last century – when cars had barely been invented.

The bigger picture…

Assuming we make it to 2020, what sort of world will it be? Well I’ve made it through 4 decades pretty unscathed so far and while I can still vaguely remember talk of the ‘4 minute warning’, fall-out shelters and nuclear apocalypse as a child, the threat of such an horrific end to mankind certainly seemed to have retreated during the course of my life.

gaiaBut then, last weekend I read a very stark article in the Times by James Lovelock, a respected scientist now approaching his nineties and the man who formulated the Gaia hypothesis, which proposes that the world on which we live can be thought of as a single organism that takes action to protect itself from harm and repair itself where needed.

Maybe at his age, Mr Lovelock is understandably contemplating the end of his own existence and, despite the advances in medical science, is unlikely to see any of his prophecies for this century come to fruition. But reading his words I couldn’t help feel that he will indeed be heading off to a better place than the one he will be leaving behind.

While estimates and projections for the potentially devastating impact of global warming usually stretch out to the end of this century and beyond, James Lovelock’s hypothesis has Mother Earth ridding itself of much of the human population a lot quicker. In essence he is saying that as us, and the animals we breed to support and sustain us, account for the majority of greenhouse gas production in the world then Gaia will act to reduce our numbers to a sustainable level in order to ensure the Earth’s survival. Sustainable in Mr Lovelock’s assessment means losing 90% of the current human population by the end of the century.

So how will this come about? Primarily because the projected rises in global temperatures will mean that very little of our landmass will be habitable and, more importantly, be able to provide the food we need.

He observes that the events we see in terms of freak weather, melting icecaps, rising sea levels and pressures on resources illustrate that the situation is already unstoppable and the majority of ‘green’ initiatives are deeply flawed and possibly counter-productive in the longer term. He is a long-term advocate of nuclear power as the only real sustainable and practical source of energy for a power hungry world.

Judging by James Lovelock’s timeline, we will be seeing serious and undeniable consequences of global warming by 2020, with the UK increasingly becoming a haven from relentlessly rising temperatures and their devastating effects.

The 'Road Ahead'…

road_aheadOne of Bill Gate’s better quotes, made I believe in the Road Ahead, is that “people tend to overestimate what will happen in the next two years but underestimate what will happen in the next ten”

Having spent much of my career working in technology I have witnessed first hand this happening time and time again.

  • A 3 year stint in the advertising industry at the beginning of the 90s saw the arrival of affordable desktop computing and the subsequent desktop publishing revolution.
  • The 7 years spent working in the broadcast and telecoms industry during the digital revolution saw the arrival and growth of digital and interactive television, digital radio, the web and broadband.
  • A subsequent 3 years spent working at the heart of the mobile telephony industry at the turn of the century saw the development and introduction of 3G technologies.
  • And the last 6 years spent working with, and for, web applications developers and service providers has seen a revolution in how the web is used – from a read only to a read/write medium.

I have been fortunate to have been there when some of this technological history was first made and have avidly charted its progress from that point, sometimes playing a part in the early hype that is often seen with such developments but then seeing things mature and become very much part of our everyday lives.

Like the Bill Gates quote, I have also seen the renowned Gartner Hype Cycle play out repeatedly during this time.

I think this experience, coupled with a long held interest in history, has made me more attune to the prospects and fate of emerging technologies and ideas.

This blog therefore is a place where I will be noting my thoughts on the future and seeking discussion and collaboration with others on its various topics.

Given my background, there may be more of a bias towards communications technologies but I am also keen to explore other key areas of development that will shape the way we will live in 2020 and beyond.