In a subsequent interview with James Lovelock I have read recently, he describes himself as an ‘Optimistic Pessimist’ – this is based largely on his observations on how the human population react in times of crisis and his belief that we can actually be happier than when dealing with long periods of peace and prosperity.

I am also reminded of my socio/economic history studies and the predictions of Thomas Malthus about population growth out-stripping food supply, which did not come to fruition in the timescales he was proposing.

World population has soared to numbers Malthus probably could not have conceived of thanks to modern agriculture, with its complex machinery, immense transport infrastructure and fertilizers.

But wait…machinery, transport, fertilizers on the scale we use them today would not be possible without an abundant supply of cheap fossil fuels. And it was this, more than any other factor, that Malthus could not predict in his observations.

So are we heading for a double whammy here? Global temperature rises of at least 2oC during this century that render massive areas of land uninhabitable, combined with an increasing decline in fossil fuel availability that makes modern agriculture too expensive to sustain at its current levels?

Optimistic forecasts on that ‘peak oil’ date (the point at which reserves decline) put it at 2020. This is followed by charts that indicate oil availability falling back within 90 years to levels seen at the beginning of the last century – when cars had barely been invented.